A wave of renewed optimism is sweeping through Hong Kong’s export sector, fueled by a significant de-escalation in international trade friction. The latest HKTDC Export Confidence Index for the third quarter of 2025 reveals a dramatic upswing in sentiment, leading to a substantial upward revision of the city’s full-year export growth forecast.
The data shows a robust recovery across key metrics. The Current Performance Index, which gauges recent business performance, jumped to 53.3 from 49.6. More importantly, the Expectation Index, a bellwether for future prospects, climbed to 54.3 from 49.0. These figures represent the highest readings since the index was upgraded in early 2024, signaling a strong belief in a sustained rebound.
Revised Forecast and the Driving Forces Behind the Boom
Bolstered by this surge in confidence, the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has made a significant adjustment to its 2025 outlook. The council has revised its overall Hong Kong export growth forecast upward from a modest 3% to a robust 7-9%.
This dramatic shift is attributed to two primary factors: a rally in sales and new orders driven by widespread trade front-loading, and an increase in trade value due to higher unit prices. This strategic move by businesses to accelerate shipments ahead of potential further tariff changes resulted in impressive year-on-year export growth of 12.7% for the first seven months of 2025.
A Cautious Outlook Amidst the Optimism
Despite the positive indicators, the HKTDC urges a measured perspective, warning that the current boom is intrinsically linked to temporary tactics. Irina Fan, Director of HKTDC Research, highlighted the underlying uncertainties.
“The better-than-expected export performance… was driven largely by the front-loading trade strategy, the benefits of which will recede over the coming months,” Fan stated. She pointed to high U.S. tariffs imposed on major trading partners and extended deadlines for China-US trade talks as critical variables. “The possibility of future tariff hikes and further supply chain risks… remains very real and could well translate into a sharp deceleration in trade in 2026.”
Regional and Sectoral Performance: A Mixed Picture
The optimism is not uniformly distributed across all markets. Mainland China and the ASEAN bloc are viewed as the most promising destinations, with their Current Performance scores soaring to 62.4 and 56.9, respectively. Positive expectations also extend to the EU and Japan. In stark contrast, confidence in the U.S. market continues to falter, with performance readings remaining firmly below 40, indicating an anticipated contraction.
On the industry front, the electronics, timepieces, clothing, and jewellery sectors all registered in expansionary territory for both current and expected performance. The toys and machinery/equipment and materials sectors, however, remained in contractionary space.
Nicholas Fu, the HKTDC Senior Economist who oversaw the index compilation, found a silver lining, noting, “It is encouraging that the majority (64%) of survey respondents expected rising or stable profit margins despite the challenging trading environment.”
This blend of strong short-term performance and cautious long-term planning defines the current mood in Hong Kong’s export community, as it navigates a complex and rapidly evolving global trade landscape.
